Austevoll vs Gneist Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Austevoll via a double chance covering win or draw, with probabilities of 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is essentially a bet against a Gneist victory rather than a strong call on Austevoll winning. That framing fits the comparison metrics, where Austevoll lead on form (58 versus 42), defence (48 versus 52), Poisson (53 versus 47), goals (56 versus 44) and total (53 versus 47), while attack is dead level at 50 and the head-to-head split is a stark 100 to 0 in Austevoll's favour. The head-to-head evidence, however, rests on a single match — a 5-4 Austevoll away win at Gneist in May 2026 — so it is a small sample that flatters the home side far more than the underlying numbers justify. Austevoll's season record of seven wins, six draws and seven losses from 20 games is modest, and their recent form of two defeats, a draw and two wins in the last five, including a 1-3 home loss to Askøy and a 2-5 defeat at Djerv, suggests a team that is far from dominant. Gneist's overall record is clearly weaker at five wins, three draws and twelve losses, yet their last five — two draws, a win, and two losses — is not dramatically worse than Austevoll's, and their 2-2 draw with Varegg and 2-1 win at Fyllingsdalen show they can compete. The goals analysis adds a further qualification: Austevoll score 1.90 per game but concede 2.40, while Gneist score 1.80 and concede 2.80, so both defences are porous and the match profile looks more open than the cautious double-chance advice implies. Austevoll's away scoring average of 2.20 is notably higher than their home figure of 1.60, which complicates any assumption that home advantage will drive them, and Gneist's home scoring of 2.20 against an away figure of 1.30 shows their threat is concentrated at home. Late goals are a shared pattern, with Austevoll scoring 24.39% of their goals in the 76-90 window and Gneist 28.95%, while Austevoll also concede 31.82% of their goals in that same period, so the closing stages could be decisive in a match the model expects to be close. Overall, the evidence supports the model's view that an Austevoll defeat is the least likely outcome, but the level attack metrics, the single-match head-to-head, and both teams' poor defensive records mean the double chance is a cautious reading of an evenly matched and potentially high-scoring fixture rather than a confident endorsement of Austevoll.

Predicted winner

Austevoll

Betting advice

Double chance : Austevoll or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Gneist 4–5 Austevoll (14 May 2026)