Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
Aurrerá Vitoria vs Erandio Prediction
Match prediction
- Aurrerá Vitoria's unbeaten four-match form and superior attack and defence ratings justify favouring them, though the model's 45% draw probability explains the cautious double-chance advice.
- Erandio's alternating win-loss pattern and two defeats in four suggest inconsistency, supporting the home side's edge while their two clean sheets warn against backing a straight win.
- The near-even 45-45 split between home win and draw, with Erandio at just 10%, directly underpins the double-chance recommendation rather than a single-outcome bet.
- Aurrerá's perfect scoring record across four matches contrasts with Erandio's blank against R. Union B, strengthening the case for the home side avoiding defeat.
- Erandio's away form is polarised, winning both away games without conceding or losing heavily, which introduces volatility the draw-inclusive advice absorbs.
- The absence of head-to-head history means the prediction rests on current form and Poisson ratings, where Aurrerá's 57% share modestly favours them over Erandio's 43%.
- Predicted winner
- Aurrerá Vitoria
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Aurrerá Vitoria or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Aurrerá Vitoria | Erandio |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63.0% | 38.0% |
| Attack | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Defence | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Poisson | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 59.8% | 40.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Aurrerá Vitoria
Recent form: WDWW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Erandio
Recent form: WLLW.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
No recorded head-to-head matches are available.


