Aumund-Vegesack vs Hemelingen Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Hemelingen as the winner, with a combo advice of Hemelingen and over 2.5 goals, yet its own probabilities split evenly at 50% draw and 50% away while assigning Aumund-Vegesack 0%, a tension that suggests the nominal pick rests on a narrow edge rather than a decisive one. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Hemelingen leads on form (63 versus 38), attack (60 versus 40), defence (83 versus 17), Poisson (93 versus 7), head-to-head (93 versus 7), goals (74 versus 26) and total (77.70 versus 22.50), so nearly every composite dimension points the same direction. The team analysis sharpens this: Hemelingen arrive with a perfect seven-win record, no draws or defeats, five clean sheets and no match in which they failed to score, whereas Aumund-Vegesack show a volatile LWWLWLW sequence with four wins and three losses, no clean sheets and one blank. The goals analysis explains why the over 2.5 leg is plausible, since Hemelingen average 4.30 goals scored and only 0.30 conceded per game, while Aumund-Vegesack average 3.00 scored but 3.30 conceded, and the home side's matches have gone over 2.5 only three times in seven against four unders, a reminder that their own totals are less reliably high. Recent form supports Hemelingen further, as their last five are all wins including 6-0, 4-0, 5-0 and 6-1 scorelines, while Aumund-Vegesack's last five mix three wins with two home defeats, so the visitors' consistency contrasts with the hosts' alternating results. The head-to-head record is the most cautionary section for the away pick, because although Hemelingen won the most recent meeting 8-1 and lead the historical series, Aumund-Vegesack have also won at Hemelingen's ground and twice held them to draws, showing this fixture has not been one-sided across ten meetings. The 0% home probability is therefore difficult to reconcile with Aumund-Vegesack's 3.00 goals-per-game average and their capacity to score in every home league match, which qualifies rather than overturns the model's lean. Overall, the weight of form, defensive and Poisson evidence supports the Hemelingen side of the combo, but the even draw-away split and the hosts' scoring record mean the advice should be read as a modest lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Hemelingen

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Hemelingen and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Hemelingen 8–1 Aumund-Vegesack (12 Apr 2026)
2. Aumund-Vegesack 2–2 Hemelingen (18 Oct 2025)
3. Hemelingen 1–0 Aumund-Vegesack (08 Dec 2024)
4. Aumund-Vegesack 1–3 Hemelingen (24 Aug 2024)
5. Hemelingen 6–3 Aumund-Vegesack (24 Mar 2024)