Augsburg II vs Aubstadt Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Aubstadt a double-chance edge of draw or away at 45% each, leaving Augsburg II at only 10%, so the advice is essentially a bet against a home win rather than a strong call on either side. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Aubstadt leads on form (60 vs 40) and defence (61 vs 39), while Augsburg II leads on attack (56 vs 44) and, more strikingly, on Poisson (80 vs 20), which is the clearest internal conflict in the evidence. The head-to-head comparison also favours Aubstadt at 62 versus 38, and the goals and total metrics are effectively level at 50–50 and 50.5–49.5, suggesting the model sees the teams as closely matched overall despite the lopsided probability split. Augsburg II's ten-match record of three wins, three draws and four losses is modest, and their last five have produced just two points from a 3-3 home draw with Eltersdorf and a 0-0 at Bayern München II, alongside three defeats including a 5-2 loss at Wacker Burghausen and 0-3 reverses to Greuther Fürth II and SpVgg Unterhaching. Aubstadt's nine-match record of two wins, two draws and five losses looks weaker on paper, yet their form string of WDDLLWLLL and their last five — a 2-0 home win over Ansbach followed by four straight defeats, three of them without scoring — show a similar recent collapse. The goals analysis adds nuance: Augsburg II average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded, while Aubstadt average 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, so Aubstadt's defensive edge is real but not overwhelming, and both teams have kept only one clean sheet apiece. Aubstadt's away scoring is the most extreme split in the data, with just one goal in three away matches at an average of 0.30, which directly undercuts the away half of the double-chance advice even as their overall defensive numbers support it. The head-to-head record offers the strongest counterweight to the model's lean, since the last ten meetings include five draws and Augsburg II have won twice by emphatic 5-0 and 3-0 scorelines, with Aubstadt's most recent win being a 2-0 home success in September 2025. Taken together, the evidence points to a genuinely uncertain fixture in which the draw component of the advice is well supported by the head-to-head and the even goals metrics, while the Aubstadt win component rests mainly on form and defence and is qualified by their poor away scoring and Augsburg II's superior Poisson rating.

Predicted winner

Aubstadt

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Aubstadt

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Augsburg II 3–3 Aubstadt (21 Mar 2026)
2. Aubstadt 2–0 Augsburg II (06 Sep 2025)
3. Aubstadt 0–5 Augsburg II (19 Apr 2025)
4. Augsburg II 0–3 Aubstadt (06 Oct 2024)
5. Aubstadt 1–1 Augsburg II (06 Apr 2024)