Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Atlético Porcuna vs Churriana Vega Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw and 45% away split makes the double chance the coherent play, since the home side carries only a 10% win probability.
- Atlético Porcuna's form edge is misleading because both wins came at home, while their two away trips produced heavy defeats.
- Churriana Vega's attack and defence ratings outweigh Porcuna's form score, supporting the away side's inclusion in the advice.
- The head-to-head record leans heavily toward Churriana Vega, though the most recent meeting ended goalless.
- Porcuna's away defensive collapses inflate their goals-against average, a vulnerability that could resurface even at home.
- With both teams conceding regularly and neither keeping consistent clean sheets, the draw leg of the double chance remains live.
- Predicted winner
- Churriana Vega
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Churriana Vega
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Atlético Porcuna | Churriana Vega |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Attack | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Defence | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| Poisson | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| H2h | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Total | 49.8% | 50.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Atlético Porcuna
Recent form: WLWL.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Churriana Vega
Recent form: LWLL.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Atlético Porcuna 0–0 Churriana Vega (25 Jan 2026)
- Churriana Vega 1–0 Atlético Porcuna (14 Sep 2025)


