Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Atlético Porcuna vs Churriana Vega Prediction

Atlético Porcuna badgeAtlético Porcuna vs Churriana Vega badgeChurriana Vega

Match prediction

  • The model's 45% draw and 45% away split makes the double chance the coherent play, since the home side carries only a 10% win probability.
  • Atlético Porcuna's form edge is misleading because both wins came at home, while their two away trips produced heavy defeats.
  • Churriana Vega's attack and defence ratings outweigh Porcuna's form score, supporting the away side's inclusion in the advice.
  • The head-to-head record leans heavily toward Churriana Vega, though the most recent meeting ended goalless.
  • Porcuna's away defensive collapses inflate their goals-against average, a vulnerability that could resurface even at home.
  • With both teams conceding regularly and neither keeping consistent clean sheets, the draw leg of the double chance remains live.
Predicted winner
Churriana Vega
Betting advice
Double chance : draw or Churriana Vega
Home win probability
10%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
45%
Goals market
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Prediction comparison

FactorAtlético PorcunaChurriana Vega
Form67.0%33.0%
Attack40.0%60.0%
Defence39.0%61.0%
Poisson83.0%17.0%
H2h20.0%80.0%
Goals0.0%100.0%
Total49.8%50.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Atlético Porcuna

Recent form: WLWL.

Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.

Churriana Vega

Recent form: LWLL.

Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Atlético Porcuna 0–0 Churriana Vega (25 Jan 2026)
  2. Churriana Vega 1–0 Atlético Porcuna (14 Sep 2025)
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