Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Prediction
· Estadio Atanasio Girardot
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : Atletico Nacional or draw
Match prediction
- Atletico Nacional's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities leave only a 10% away chance, directly supporting the double-chance advice.
- Nacional's home record of 14 wins and zero losses in 16 matches explains why the model caps Tolima's away win probability so low.
- Tolima's five-match winless run, including three draws and two losses, reinforces the draw component of the double chance.
- Nacional's 0.50 home goals-against average versus Tolima's 1.10 away scoring average suggests the visitor may struggle to score.
- The head-to-head record favors Nacional at home, though Tolima's occasional away wins in this fixture justify including the draw rather than backing a straight home win.
- Nacional's recent home form includes two draws in five, which explains why the model splits probability evenly between home win and draw.
- Predicted winner
- Atletico Nacional
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Atletico Nacional or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| Attack | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Defence | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Poisson | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| H2h | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Goals | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Total | 68.3% | 31.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
Atletico Nacional
Recent form: WWWLWWLWWWLWWDWWWLLWWWWLWWLWWWWWLDW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Deportes Tolima
Recent form: WWDDLDWLWDWDWWDLWLDWWLLWWLWDWWLLDDD.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima (24 May 2026)
- Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico Nacional (17 May 2026)
- Deportes Tolima 1–0 Atletico Nacional (02 Mar 2026)
- Deportes Tolima 0–0 Atletico Nacional (03 Aug 2025)
- Atletico Nacional 4–3 Deportes Tolima (20 Mar 2025)