Atletico Nacional vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Chapecoense-sc a 45% win probability, identical to the draw, while Atletico Nacional sits at just 10%, so the advice leans toward the away side but with no real separation from a stalemate. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Chapecoense-sc dominates form (100.00 vs 0.00), defence (88.00 vs 13.00), Poisson (83.00 vs 17.00) and total (73.70 vs 26.70), yet attack is dead level at 50.00 each and both head-to-head and goals columns are empty at 0.00. The team analysis sharpens this contrast: Atletico Nacional have lost all three tracked fixtures (LLL, two home defeats and one away), scoring twice and conceding seven, while Chapecoense-sc have a single away win, 2-1, with two goals for and one against. Their goals analysis shows the small-sample problem clearly, as Chapecoense-sc's entire output comes from one match with both goals in the 16-30 window, whereas Nacional's two goals are spread across three games and their seven concessions arrive mostly after the break. The last-five records complicate the picture further, since Nacional actually show three wins, a draw and a loss across five matches, including 3-0 wins over Deportivo Cali and 2-0 over Aguilas Doradas, which contradicts the bleak three-match form string. Chapecoense-sc's last five are mixed at two wins, one draw and two losses, with the 2-1 win at Corinthians the standout and a 3-1 defeat at Gremio the low point, so neither side arrives on a genuinely dominant run. The head-to-head section is unavailable, meaning there is no historical fixture evidence to either support or undercut the away lean. Overall, the probabilities and comparison metrics point toward Chapecoense-sc, but the level attack rating, the empty head-to-head and goals columns, and Nacional's stronger five-match results suggest the 45% draw share is a fair reflection of how uncertain this friendly really is.

Predicted winner

Chapecoense-sc

Betting advice

Winner : Chapecoense-sc

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.