Atlético Monzón vs Almudévar Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Almudévar via a double-chance draw-or-away call, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for an Atlético Monzón win, so the advice is essentially a bet against a home victory rather than a strong endorsement of either side. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Almudévar leads on form (60 vs 40), attack (60 vs 40) and especially defence (67 vs 33), and edges the goals split 47 to 53, though the margins are modest rather than decisive. The clearest conflict sits in the Poisson column, which points the other way at 75 for Monzón against 25 for Almudévar, and the total ratings are nearly level at 48.5 versus 51.5, suggesting the model's own components disagree about how much the home side's underlying numbers deserve weight. The head-to-head section is the most neutral input, split 50-50, and the ten meetings reflect genuine balance: three draws, including a 2-2 in February 2026 and a 0-0 in 2023, plus alternating home wins such as Almudévar's 1-0 in September 2025 and Monzón's 2-1 in October 2024. Recent form is thin for both, with only three league fixtures played each, so the form strings of LWD for Monzón and WLW for Almudévar rest on a very small sample. Almudévar's record is notably home-weighted, with two wins and two clean sheets at home including a 4-0, but a 3-1 loss away and no clean sheet on the road, which matters because this fixture is at Monzón. Monzón's own profile is similarly split, with a 4-3 home win and a 0-0 home draw alongside a 3-0 away defeat, and their goals analysis shows 4 scored and 6 conceded across three games, including two failures to score. Almudévar's goals analysis shows 6 scored and only 3 conceded, all of those goals against coming in the single away defeat, and their scoring is concentrated late with 40% in the 46-60 window and 40% in the 76-90 window. The last-five records extend beyond the current season and show both sides capable of wins and losses, with Monzón also beating Cuarte 1-0 away and losing 0-2 at home, while Almudévar beat Huesca II 3-2 and lost 0-2 at Cuarte, reinforcing that neither team's recent run is dominant. Overall, the draw-or-Almudévar advice looks reasonable given Almudévar's better defensive and form numbers, but the Poisson disagreement, the even head-to-head and the small samples mean this should be treated as a low-confidence lean rather than a clear edge.

Predicted winner

Almudévar

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Almudévar

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Atlético Monzón 2–2 Almudévar (08 Feb 2026)
2. Almudévar 1–0 Atlético Monzón (28 Sep 2025)
3. Almudévar 1–4 Atlético Monzón (02 Mar 2025)
4. Atlético Monzón 2–1 Almudévar (20 Oct 2024)
5. Almudévar 3–1 Atlético Monzón (27 Mar 2024)