Atlético Mansillés vs Mirandés II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Atlético Mansillés via a double chance covering a win or draw, with home and draw probabilities both at 45% against just 10% for Mirandés II, and the advice pairs that with a -3.5 goals line. That split is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Atlético Mansillés dominate form (88 vs 13), attack (83 vs 17) and defence (67 vs 33), yet the Poisson estimate is nearly level at 51 vs 49 and head-to-head is dead even at 50 vs 50, so the model's confidence is clearly qualified rather than absolute. The goals comparison actually tilts toward the away side (44 vs 56), which sits awkwardly beside the -3.5 unders advice and suggests the low-scoring expectation rests more on the teams' actual output than on these aggregate indices. Atlético Mansillés' team analysis shows a WDW form across three matches with two away wins and one home draw, no defeats, one clean sheet and no failure to score, while Mirandés II are LDL with two home losses, one away draw, no clean sheets and two blanks in front of goal. The goals analysis reinforces that contrast: Atlético Mansillés average 1.70 scored and 0.70 conceded, with all three matches staying under 2.5 and 3.5 goals, whereas Mirandés II average only 0.30 scored and 1.30 conceded, and their goals-against arrive late (50% in the 76-90 window). The last-five records add nuance, since Atlético Mansillés' recent league form is W-D-W but the extended sample includes a draw and a home defeat to Mojados, while Mirandés II's run is L-D-L with a 4-2 home win over Villaralbo in May showing they are not entirely toothless. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the home-side narrative, comprising a 0-0 draw, a 1-0 Atlético Mansillés win, a 3-3 draw and a 0-2 Mirandés II away win, so neither side has established control and two of the four meetings were drawn. Taken together, the evidence supports a cautious lean toward Atlético Mansillés avoiding defeat and a low total, but the level Poisson and head-to-head figures, plus Mirandés II's capacity for the occasional higher-scoring result, mean the -3.5 goals element carries its own uncertainty.

Predicted winner

Atlético Mansillés

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Atlético Mansillés or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mirandés II 0–0 Atlético Mansillés (07 Mar 2026)
2. Atlético Mansillés 1–0 Mirandés II (25 Oct 2025)
3. Mirandés II 3–3 Atlético Mansillés (12 Apr 2025)
4. Atlético Mansillés 0–2 Mirandés II (23 Nov 2024)