Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Atlético Mansillés vs Guijuelo Prediction

Atlético Mansillés badgeAtlético Mansillés vs Guijuelo badgeGuijuelo

Match prediction

  • The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify a double-chance stance while conceding Guijuelo's 10% win share remains live.
  • Mansilles' unbeaten four-match form and two clean sheets contrast sharply with Guijuelo's three defeats, supporting the home-or-draw advice.
  • Guijuelo failed to score in two of four outings, weakening their attacking case and reinforcing the low-scoring under 3.5 goals expectation.
  • Both head-to-head meetings were decided by a single goal, suggesting a tight margin that favours the draw component of the double chance.
  • Every Mansilles and Guijuelo match this season stayed under 3.5 goals, directly supporting the -3.5 goals leg of the combo.
  • Guijuelo's defensive record is notably weaker than Mansilles', so the home side's edge in defence underpins the cautious rather than emphatic prediction.
Predicted winner
Atlético Mansillés
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : Atlético Mansillés or draw and -3.5 goals
Home win probability
45%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
10%
Goals market
-3.5

Prediction comparison

FactorAtlético MansillésGuijuelo
Form77.0%23.0%
Attack60.0%40.0%
Defence71.0%29.0%
Poisson63.0%37.0%
H2h50.0%50.0%
Goals50.0%50.0%
Total61.8%38.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Atlético Mansillés

Recent form: WDWW.

Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.

Guijuelo

Recent form: LWLL.

Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Atlético Mansillés 2–1 Guijuelo (18 Jan 2026)
  2. Guijuelo 1–0 Atlético Mansillés (07 Sep 2025)
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