Atletico Lodigiani vs Trastevere Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Trastevere a 45% chance of winning and Atletico Lodigiani only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Trastevere rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Trastevere leads on form (88.00 versus 13.00), defence (58.00 versus 42.00), Poisson (74.00 versus 26.00), head-to-head (71.00 versus 29.00), goals (54.00 versus 46.00) and overall total (65.80 versus 34.30), while attack is the one category level at 50.00 for both sides. The form gap is visible in the last-five records: Atletico Lodigiani have lost three of four league games this season, including a 5-1 defeat at Monastir and a 2-3 home loss to Albalonga, whereas Trastevere won their opening two before a 1-1 draw at Ossese and a heavy 1-6 home defeat to Paganese. That 1-6 loss is the main qualifier on Trastevere's otherwise stronger profile, since it shows their defensive numbers are not immune to collapse, and it sits alongside a 3.50 home goals-against average compared with just 0.50 away. Atletico Lodigiani's own defensive record is similarly poor at 2.80 goals conceded per game, with no clean sheets in four matches and a 3.00 away average, so both teams carry real defensive risk into this fixture. The goals analysis reinforces that tension: both sides have scored five goals in four games, but Atletico Lodigiani have failed to score once while Trastevere have scored in every match, and neither team has gone over 2.5 goals in any of their four fixtures. The head-to-head record leans toward Trastevere with three wins from five meetings, including a 2-1 away victory in March 2026 and a 3-1 Coppa Italia win, though Atletico Lodigiani won the November 2025 meeting 1-0 and drew 1-1 in October 2024, so the series is not one-sided. Overall, the evidence points to Trastevere as the more reliable side and justifies the draw-or-away double chance, but the 45% draw probability, the shared attacking score, and Trastevere's 1-6 home defeat mean the model's edge is modest rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Trastevere

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Trastevere

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Atletico Lodigiani 1–2 Trastevere (15 Mar 2026)
2. Trastevere 1–0 Atletico Lodigiani (01 Nov 2025)
3. Trastevere 2–1 Atletico Lodigiani (02 Feb 2025)
4. Atletico Lodigiani 1–1 Trastevere (06 Oct 2024)
5. Trastevere 1–3 Atletico Lodigiani (01 Sep 2024)