Atlético Arteixo vs Alondras Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Alondras a 45% win probability and Atlético Arteixo only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the advice of a draw-or-Alondras double chance rests on a combined 90% and a clear rejection of a home win. That stance is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Alondras leads on form (55 versus 45), attack (75 versus 25), goals (70 versus 30) and especially the Poisson measure (100 versus 0), while Arteixo's only clear edge is defence at 86 against 14. The head-to-head comparison is split exactly 50-50, which qualifies rather than contradicts the advice, since the model is not claiming Alondras dominance in this fixture but only that Arteixo are unlikely to win. The team analysis shows why the two teams arrive differently: Arteixo are unbeaten in three with a DDW sequence built on two clean sheets and just one goal conceded, whereas Alondras have LWW with six goals scored but also six conceded, all in a single 2-6 home defeat. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast, as Arteixo average only 0.70 goals per game and have never exceeded 1.5 in any match, while Alondras average 2.00 for and 2.00 against, with their concessions concentrated late (three in the 76-90 band). The last-five records add nuance: Arteixo's recent form includes a 1-0 win at Viveiro, a 1-1 home draw with Estradense and a 0-0 at Villalbés, suggesting a low-scoring, hard-to-beat profile rather than a winning one. Alondras' last five are more volatile, with 2-0 wins over Sarriana and at Antela and a 2-0 win at Barbadás offset by the 2-6 loss to Pontevedra II and a 1-2 home defeat to Viveiro. The head-to-head record over eight meetings is genuinely balanced at four wins each if the two draws are set aside, yet the most recent encounter was a 2-0 Alondras home win and the 2025-26 season also produced a 4-0 Alondras victory at Arteixo, which supports the away side's higher attacking rating. Taken together, the evidence points to a low-scoring, tight contest in which Arteixo's defensive solidity and draw tendency make a stalemate plausible, while Alondras' greater goal threat and recent head-to-head success justify the double-chance cover rather than a straight away win.

Predicted winner

Alondras

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Alondras

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Alondras 2–0 Atlético Arteixo (08 Feb 2026)
2. Atlético Arteixo 0–4 Alondras (20 Sep 2025)
3. Alondras 0–0 Atlético Arteixo (03 May 2025)
4. Atlético Arteixo 2–1 Alondras (21 Dec 2024)
5. Alondras 0–1 Atlético Arteixo (10 Feb 2024)