Assyriska FF vs Piteå Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Assyriska FF a combined 90% chance of winning or drawing (45% home win, 45% draw) against Piteå's 10%, and its advice pairs that double chance with over 1.5 goals, so the evidence needs to justify both a strong home-leaning result and at least a modest goal count. The comparison metrics broadly reinforce that lean, with Assyriska ahead on form (60 vs 40), attack (57 vs 43), Poisson (59 vs 41), head-to-head (62 vs 38), goals (57 vs 43) and total (57 vs 43), while the defence split is the one genuine counterweight, Piteå edging it 53 to 47. That defensive edge looks less convincing once the season data is examined, because Assyriska have scored 42 goals at 1.80 per game against Piteå's 27 at 1.20, and Assyriska's away defensive record of 1.10 conceded per game is actually tighter than Piteå's home figure of 2.10. The teams' overall records diverge sharply: Assyriska have 9 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses from 23, whereas Piteå have just 4 wins, 6 draws and 13 losses, including a five-match losing streak and eight failures to score. Recent form is more mixed than the season-long picture, as Assyriska's last five produced three wins but also a 2-5 home defeat to AFC Eskilstuna, while Piteå's last five show two wins and three losses, with both wins coming at home and both scoring blanks arriving in defeats. The head-to-head record offers only partial comfort for the home side, since Assyriska won the most recent meeting 2-0 away in April 2026 and also won 2-1 at this venue in 2024, but two of the five meetings were draws and Piteå won 3-2 at home in 2021. On goals, Assyriska's matches have gone over 1.5 in 14 of 23 while Piteå's have done so in only 8 of 23, which makes the over 1.5 leg of the advice more dependent on Assyriska's scoring than on Piteå's, though Piteå's 44 goals conceded at 1.90 per game and their tendency to concede late (31.71% of goals against in the 76-90 window) support the possibility of multiple goals. The main tension is therefore between Assyriska's superior attacking and form profile, which supports the double chance, and their leaky home defence of 2.50 conceded per game plus Piteå's occasional away scoring, which keeps the 45% draw probability plausible rather than the home win being dominant.

Predicted winner

Assyriska FF

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Assyriska FF or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Piteå 0–2 Assyriska FF (12 Apr 2026)
2. Assyriska FF 2–1 Piteå (08 Sep 2024)
3. Piteå 1–1 Assyriska FF (31 Mar 2024)
4. Assyriska FF 1–1 Piteå (03 Oct 2021)
5. Piteå 3–2 Assyriska FF (19 Jun 2021)