ASM Oran vs WA Mostaganem Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward WA Mostaganem as the winner, yet its own probabilities place that outcome at only 45%, exactly level with the draw and far ahead of ASM Oran's 10%, so the advice is best read as a marginal lean rather than a confident call. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where WA Mostaganem dominates form (100.00 vs 0.00), attack (100.00 vs 0.00), goals (100.00 vs 0.00) and head-to-head (85.00 vs 15.00), while ASM Oran's only edge is defensive (67.00 vs 33.00). The Poisson column, however, reads 0.00 for both sides, which suggests the goal-expectation component is not independently separating these teams and therefore does not strengthen the away lean. Both teams' performance samples are extremely thin, with each having played just one fixture: ASM Oran lost 1-0 away to Usm El Harrach and failed to score, whereas WA Mostaganem drew 2-2 away at MC Saida, scoring twice but also conceding twice. The goals analysis mirrors that contrast, showing ASM Oran with 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game against WA Mostaganem's 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, so the away side's attacking edge is offset by an equally leaky defensive record. The last-five records add nuance rather than clarity: ASM Oran's sequence includes two wins (4-1 at CRB Adrar and 1-0 at home to MC Saida) alongside three defeats, while WA Mostaganem's run is one draw, three losses and a 1-0 home win over ASM Oran. That head-to-head meeting is part of a six-match record in which WA Mostaganem have won three, ASM Oran none and three ended level, including two 0-0 draws in Oran and a 4-0 Mostaganem win, which supports the away lean but also explains why the draw carries equal probability. Overall, the evidence points to WA Mostaganem as the slightly more plausible winner on form, goals and head-to-head, but the small samples, the 0.00 Poisson values and the persistent draw pattern in this fixture mean the 45% draw probability is a genuine competing outcome rather than noise.

Predicted winner

WA Mostaganem

Betting advice

Winner : WA Mostaganem

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. WA Mostaganem 1–0 ASM Oran (25 Apr 2026)
2. ASM Oran 0–0 WA Mostaganem (21 Dec 2025)
3. WA Mostaganem 1–0 ASM Oran (27 Apr 2025)
4. ASM Oran 0–0 WA Mostaganem (13 Dec 2024)
5. WA Mostaganem 4–0 ASM Oran (15 Mar 2024)