Arlanda vs Enköping Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Arlanda via a double-chance call of “Arlanda or draw,” assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for an Enköping victory, so the advice is essentially a bet against an away win rather than a strong vote for Arlanda. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Enköping actually holds a slight edge in form (53 versus 47) and the two are level on attack at 50, meaning the home preference is not driven by recent momentum or scoring threat. Instead, the model’s home tilt appears rooted in defence and expected-goals style measures, with Arlanda far ahead on defence (59 versus 41), Poisson (65 versus 35), goals (72 versus 28) and total (64.3 versus 35.7), while the head-to-head split is the most extreme input at 93 to 7 in Arlanda’s favour. The head-to-head record does support that, since Arlanda won 7-1 away at Enköping in April 2026 and 3-1 away in October 2025, though the most recent meeting at this venue went Arlanda’s way only 2-1 and the February 2026 friendly finished 2-2, which tempers any assumption of automatic dominance. Both teams’ season records are strikingly similar in aggregate, with each on 12 wins from 23 matches, but Arlanda’s 6 draws and 5 losses compare with Enköping’s 3 draws and 8 losses, suggesting Arlanda are harder to beat while Enköping are more volatile. The goals analysis supports that distinction: Arlanda concede 1.20 per game overall and just 0.90 at home, whereas Enköping concede 1.70 overall and 1.80 at home, and Arlanda’s 9 clean sheets dwarf Enköping’s 4. Attacking output is nearly identical, with Arlanda averaging 1.70 goals and Enköping 1.60, and both scoring 18 times in their opening 0.5-goal matches, so the separation is defensive rather than offensive. The last-five records add a conflicting signal, as Arlanda have won three of five but lost their two most recent home matches against Umeå FC and Karlberg, while Enköping have won three of five with a draw and a 0-3 home loss to Stockholm Internazionale. With no under-over prediction supplied and the probabilities themselves showing a dead heat between home win and draw, the evidence points to a low-confidence lean toward Arlanda avoiding defeat rather than a clear edge, and the small head-to-head sample and recent home defeats mean the 93-to-7 split should be treated as suggestive rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Arlanda

Betting advice

Double chance : Arlanda or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Enköping 1–7 Arlanda (24 Apr 2026)
2. Enköping 2–2 Arlanda (21 Feb 2026)
3. Enköping 1–3 Arlanda (19 Oct 2025)
4. Arlanda 2–1 Enköping (09 May 2025)
5. Enköping 2–4 Arlanda (19 Oct 2024)