Aretxabaleta vs Derio Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Derio with a “win or draw” double chance and a -2.5 goals line, expressed as 45% draw, 45% away and only 10% home, so the advice is essentially a low-scoring, non-home-win projection. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Derio dominate attack (75 versus 25), goals (86 versus 14) and total (70.30 versus 29.70), and hold a 100 to 0 head-to-head edge, while Aretxabaleta’s only clear advantage is defence at 100 versus 0. The form and Poisson columns, however, are level at 50.00 each and 0.00 each respectively, which means the model’s confidence rests more on scoring and historical splits than on current form or a Poisson signal. Both teams are unbeaten in their three league games, with Aretxabaleta on WDD and Derio on DDW, so the draw component of the advice is consistent with two sides that have each drawn twice and lost none. Aretxabaleta’s goals analysis shows just one goal scored in three matches, all three under 2.5, and zero conceded, while Derio have scored three and conceded once, with all three of their matches also under 2.5; that shared low-scoring profile supports the -2.5 goals element even though Derio’s attacking numbers look stronger. The last-five records add nuance: Aretxabaleta’s recent run includes 0-0 draws with Durango and Beasain plus a 1-0 win at Touring, whereas Derio’s sequence includes a 2-0 home win over Santurtzi, a 3-5 loss to Salamanca UDS, and three draws, so Derio’s greater goal output comes with a defensive blemish that Aretxabaleta have not shown. The head-to-head record is the most direct support for the away side, with Derio winning the most recent meeting 2-1 at Aretxabaleta and also winning 1-0 and 2-0 at home, while Aretxabaleta’s only win in the four meetings was a 1-0 away result in November 2024. Because these samples are small, the 100% head-to-head and defensive splits should be treated as directional rather than decisive, and the 45-45 draw/away probabilities suggest the model sees the double chance as safer than backing Derio outright. Overall, the evidence coheres around a tight, low-scoring game in which Derio are the more likely winner but a draw is nearly as plausible, which is exactly the balance the existing advice reflects.

Predicted winner

Derio

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Derio and -2.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Aretxabaleta 1–2 Derio (15 Mar 2026)
2. Derio 1–0 Aretxabaleta (31 Oct 2025)
3. Derio 2–0 Aretxabaleta (15 Mar 2025)
4. Aretxabaleta 0–1 Derio (01 Nov 2024)