Aoiz vs Gazte Berriak Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Aoiz a 45% home win probability and the same 45% draw probability, leaving Gazte Berriak only 10%, which frames the advice of a combo double chance on Aoiz or draw with under 3.5 goals as a cautious lean rather than a strong home endorsement. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Gazte Berriak edge the form (55.00 vs 45.00) and attack (57.00 vs 43.00) ratings, while Aoiz hold a clear defensive advantage (75.00 vs 25.00) and a perfect Poisson score of 100.00 against 0.00. The team analysis supports the defensive reading, as Aoiz are unbeaten in three matches (DWD) with two clean sheets and only one goal conceded, whereas Gazte Berriak's WLW record includes two home wins but also a 1-0 away defeat and a missed penalty. Aoiz's goals profile is notably low-scoring, with three goals in three games and every match staying under 2.5, which aligns with the under 3.5 component of the advice. Gazte Berriak have scored four goals but all of them at home, averaging 0.00 away from home, and their three goals conceded came mainly in the 16-30 and 46-60 minute windows, suggesting vulnerability outside the opening exchanges. The last-five records add a note of caution for the home side, since Aoiz's sequence includes a 1-4 home loss to Izarra and a 3-1 away win at Avance Ezcabarte from the previous season, showing the current three-match sample is small and partly stale. Gazte Berriak's last five contain only three listed fixtures, all from this season, so their away form rests on a single 1-0 defeat at Mutilvera and is therefore a very thin basis for the 10% away probability. The head-to-head section is empty, meaning there is no historical meeting data to either support or contradict the model's split between Aoiz and the draw. Overall, the evidence coheres around a low-scoring, defensively solid Aoiz side that is hard to beat but not clearly superior, which is why the model spreads its probability almost evenly between a home win and a draw while keeping the total goals expectation low.

Predicted winner

Aoiz

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Aoiz or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.