Antofagasta vs Deportes Iquique Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Antofagasta via a double chance at 45% home and 45% draw against only 10% for Deportes Iquique, an advice that effectively treats the away win as a low-probability outcome. That caution is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Antofagasta leads on form (62 vs 38), defence (58 vs 42), Poisson (66 vs 34), head-to-head (85 vs 15) and goals (72 vs 28), though the attack gap is narrower at 55 vs 45. Antofagasta's underlying record reinforces this: seven matches without defeat (five wins, two draws), three clean sheets, and only one failure to score, while Iquique have lost once and drawn three times, with two scoreless outings. Both sides have scored 13 goals at 1.90 per game, but Antofagasta's defensive numbers are slightly tighter (0.90 conceded per game versus 1.00), and their home scoring average of 2.30 matches Iquique's home figure, suggesting the venue may amplify the hosts' edge. The last-five records complicate the picture, however, since Antofagasta's sequence includes two defeats and two draws alongside a 4-0 win, while Iquique's form is similarly mixed with three losses and a win, meaning neither team arrives in convincing rhythm. The most recent head-to-head meeting on 24 September 2026 ended 1-1, and the two prior 2026 encounters also produced draws or an Antofagasta home win, which supports the draw component of the double chance rather than a decisive home victory. Antofagasta's head-to-head dominance is partly historical, including a 4-0 home win in March 2026 and a 3-1 Copa Chile win in May 2025, but Iquique have also won away in this fixture, so the 85-15 split may overstate current separation. The goals analysis shows both teams scoring most heavily late, with Iquique netting 38.46% of their goals in the 76-90 window and Antofagasta 23.08% there, hinting that the match could remain open or be decided late. Overall, the evidence supports the existing double chance as a cautious reading of Antofagasta's stronger form, defence and head-to-head record, while the recent draws and Iquique's occasional away threat keep the away-win probability low but not negligible.

Predicted winner

Antofagasta

Betting advice

Double chance : Antofagasta or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Deportes Iquique 1–1 Antofagasta (24 Sep 2026)
2. Deportes Iquique 1–1 Antofagasta (17 Aug 2026)
3. Antofagasta 4–0 Deportes Iquique (29 Mar 2026)
4. Antofagasta 3–1 Deportes Iquique (11 May 2025)
5. Deportes Iquique 2–4 Antofagasta (26 Jan 2025)