Ankaraspor vs Somaspor Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Somaspor as the winner, yet its 45% away probability is matched exactly by a 45% draw probability and only a 10% home chance, so the advice is best read as a marginal lean rather than a clear edge. The comparison metrics reinforce that tension: Somaspor leads on form (57 vs 43), attack (78 vs 22) and Poisson (61 vs 39), while Ankaraspor's strongest counterweight is a 75–25 head-to-head score that sits awkwardly against the away-side recommendation. That head-to-head advantage is partly historical, since the four recorded meetings all came between 2021 and 2023 and produced three away wins and one home win, including Ankaraspor's 3-0 victory in September 2022 and Somaspor's 1-0 wins in both 2022 and 2023. Recent form is also mixed rather than decisive, with Ankaraspor's last five showing two wins and three defeats and Somaspor's showing one win, one draw and three losses, so neither side arrives with convincing momentum. The goals data sharpens the contrast in style: Ankaraspor have scored only twice in three league games (0.70 per match) and conceded five (1.70), while Somaspor have scored seven (2.30) but also conceded seven (2.30), making them the more volatile attacking side. Somaspor's scoring is spread across the match, with 40% of their goals in the 76–90 window, whereas Ankaraspor's two goals came in the 31–45 and 76–90 periods, and Ankaraspor have failed to score in two of three games, a weakness that undercuts their case despite the head-to-head record. Defensively, the comparison gives Ankaraspor the edge (58 vs 42), which conflicts with their 1.70 goals-against average and suggests the metric may be capturing something other than raw concession rate. The goals comparison is perfectly level at 50–50, and the overall totals are nearly level too (47.80 vs 52.20), so the model's separation between the teams rests mainly on attack, form and Poisson rather than on any broad statistical dominance. With no venue information and no under-over guidance available, the evidence supports only a cautious reading: Somaspor's attacking and form indicators justify the existing lean, but the draw probability, Ankaraspor's head-to-head record and Somaspor's own defensive fragility keep the outcome genuinely uncertain.

Predicted winner

Somaspor

Betting advice

Winner : Somaspor

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Somaspor 0–1 Ankaraspor (05 Mar 2023)
2. Ankaraspor 0–3 Somaspor (24 Sep 2022)
3. Somaspor 0–1 Ankaraspor (24 Apr 2022)
4. Ankaraspor 1–0 Somaspor (11 Dec 2021)