Anguiano vs Alfaro Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Alfaro with a double-chance draw-or-Alfaro call, expressed as 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for an Anguiano win, so the advice is essentially a bet against the home side rather than a strong endorsement of Alfaro. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Alfaro leads on attack (63 vs 38), defence (29 vs 71, where lower appears better for Alfaro), head-to-head (62 vs 38), goals (60 vs 40) and the overall total (51.7 vs 48.5), while Anguiano's only clear edge is form at 56 vs 44 and the Poisson split is nearly level at 48 vs 52. The form edge, however, rests on a tiny sample: Anguiano's WDD record covers just three fixtures with one win, two draws and no defeats, whereas Alfaro's DWL also covers three fixtures but includes a home loss and a home win. Anguiano's goals profile is notably low-event, averaging 1.00 scored and 0.70 conceded per game, with all three matches staying under 2.5 goals and their two goals against arriving in the 0-15 and 61-75 windows. Alfaro's profile is the opposite, averaging 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded, with every match seeing at least one goal and their four conceded goals all falling in the 31-45 window, which suggests defensive vulnerability around the end of the first half. The last-five records add a qualification: Anguiano's sequence includes three wins and two draws with three clean sheets, though two of those wins and a clean sheet come from May fixtures, while Alfaro's sequence is L-W-D-L-L with three defeats and no clean sheets, so recent form arguably favours Anguiano even as the model's metrics favour Alfaro. The head-to-head record is the strongest single pillar behind the advice, since Alfaro won the two most recent meetings 2-0 away and 2-1 at home, and across ten meetings Alfaro have four wins to Anguiano's three with three draws, including a 3-3 and a 2-2. Those head-to-head results span Segunda and Tercera divisions and reach back to 2019, so they describe a genuine historical pattern rather than current-season evidence, which is why the 45% draw probability looks like the model's way of hedging between Alfaro's metric superiority and Anguiano's better recent results. Overall, the evidence is mixed enough that the draw-or-Alfaro advice reads as a cautious lean rather than a confident one, with the low-scoring tendencies of both sides and the small three-match samples leaving the outcome genuinely uncertain.

Predicted winner

Alfaro

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Alfaro

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Anguiano 0–2 Alfaro (16 Mar 2025)
2. Alfaro 1–2 Anguiano (03 Nov 2024)
3. Alfaro 3–1 Anguiano (12 May 2024)
4. Anguiano 1–1 Alfaro (21 Jan 2024)
5. Alfaro 2–2 Anguiano (20 Mar 2022)