Amorebieta vs Ourense CF Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Amorebieta avoiding defeat, with a 35% home win and 35% draw against a 30% away win, so the double-chance advice reflects a narrow edge rather than clear superiority. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form favours Ourense (60.00 versus 40.00) and the Poisson measure is entirely one-sided at 100.00 for the away side, yet attack and defence are level at 50.00 each and the aggregate totals are nearly balanced at 46.70 against 53.30. The head-to-head and goals comparison columns both read 100.00 for Amorebieta, which conflicts with the Poisson signal and suggests the model is weighing historical and scoring patterns against current form. Amorebieta's three league matches produced a DLW sequence with one win, one draw and one loss, including a 2-0 away win at Racing Santander II and a 2-2 home draw with Arosa, while their only home outing so far yielded two goals for and two against. Ourense's WWL record shows two wins from three, both by 2-1 at home to Basconia and 2-0 away at Marino de Luanco, but they were beaten 0-2 at home by Eibar II, leaving them with a perfect away defensive record of zero goals conceded and a home average of 1.50 against. Both teams have scored four goals across three games, an identical 1.30 per-match average, and neither has exceeded 2.5 goals in any fixture, which points toward a tight, low-scoring contest rather than an open one. The last-five records extend this pattern: Amorebieta have two wins, one draw and two losses with three clean sheets overall, while Ourense have two wins and three defeats, including a 1-2 loss at Pontevedra and a 0-1 loss at Lugo. The head-to-head record is split across two meetings, with Amorebieta winning 2-0 at home in September 2024 and Ourense winning 3-0 at home in May 2025, so it offers no consistent directional edge despite the 100.00 home weighting in the comparison table. Because the samples are only three league matches per side and the signals pull in opposite directions, the probabilities remain close enough that the draw is a genuine component of the advice rather than a formality.

Predicted winner

Amorebieta

Betting advice

Double chance : Amorebieta or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ourense CF 0–3 Amorebieta (17 May 2025)
2. Amorebieta 2–0 Ourense CF (22 Sep 2024)