Altona 93 vs Harksheide Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Altona 93, with a 45% home win probability and an identical 45% draw probability, leaving Harksheide as a distant 10% outsider, and the advice combines an Altona 93 win with over 1.5 goals. That split between home and draw is notable because the comparison metrics are far less balanced, with Altona holding clear edges in form (67 versus 33), attack (71 versus 29), Poisson (81 versus 19), head-to-head (93 versus 7) and goals (84 versus 16), while only defence is closer at 40 versus 60. The overall totals of 72.7 against 27.3 reinforce that the model sees Altona as the stronger side, yet the unusually high draw share suggests the model is not treating this as a comfortable home win. Altona's form string of WLLWWDW across seven matches, with four wins, one draw and two losses, is more convincing than Harksheide's LDLLDLWD, which has produced just one win, three draws and four losses from eight games. The goal data sharpens that contrast: Altona average 2.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded, while Harksheide average only 1.30 scored but 2.00 conceded, so Altona's attacking output is roughly double Harksheide's. However, Altona's defensive numbers are volatile, with 1.00 conceded per home game but 3.80 per away game, and their recent 0-6 loss at Tus Dassendorf shows how badly that away vulnerability can surface. Harksheide's goal profile is low-scoring and cautious, with seven of eight matches staying under 2.5 goals and six of eight under 1.5, which supports the over 1.5 element only weakly and mainly through Altona's scoring rather than Harksheide's. The last-five records add nuance: Altona have scored heavily in wins over Teutonia Ottensen (6-1) and Concordia (4-3) but also drew 5-5 at Buchholz, while Harksheide's recent run includes a 3-2 away win at ETSV Hamburg, a 2-2 home draw with Buchholz and two 1-3 home defeats. The head-to-head record is strongly pro-Altona overall, with four Altona wins, one draw and one Harksheide win across six meetings, including a 5-0 Altona home win in 2023 and a 4-1 home win in 2024, although Harksheide's 3-0 and 3-1 away victories in this fixture show the head-to-head edge is not absolute. Taken together, the evidence supports Altona as the likely stronger side and makes the over 1.5 goals component plausible, but the equal home and draw probabilities and Altona's away defensive collapses mean the prediction should be read as a qualified lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Altona 93

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Altona 93 and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Harksheide 0–3 Altona 93 (08 Feb 2025)
2. Altona 93 4–1 Harksheide (31 Aug 2024)
3. Harksheide 1–3 Altona 93 (01 Mar 2024)
4. Altona 93 5–0 Harksheide (16 Sep 2023)
5. Harksheide 1–1 Altona 93 (28 Apr 2023)