Almeria vs Burgos Prediction
Match prediction
- Almeria's perfect home record and superior defence rating justify the double-chance advice, though the model's even 45-45 split signals genuine draw risk.
- Burgos arrive unbeaten in five with two clean sheets, so the draw component of the advice carries real weight rather than being filler.
- Almeria's attack and Burgos's attack rate identically, but Almeria's defensive edge and home form tilt the balance toward the home side.
- The Poisson split heavily favours Almeria, yet head-to-head parity and recent draws between these sides caution against reading that as dominance.
- Both teams score most of their goals before halftime, suggesting an early goal could shape whether this stays tight or opens up.
- Low-scoring recent meetings and both sides' modest goal totals support the cautious double-chance framing over an outright home win.
- Predicted winner
- Almeria
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Almeria or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Almeria | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Poisson | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Total | 56.8% | 43.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Almeria
Recent form: WLLWWWW.
Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.
Burgos
Recent form: WLDDWWW.
Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Burgos 0–0 Almeria (09 May 2026)
- Almeria 1–2 Burgos (14 Dec 2025)
- Burgos 3–1 Almeria (21 Mar 2025)
- Almeria 2–0 Burgos (05 Oct 2024)
- Burgos 0–2 Almeria (30 Apr 2022)