Almansa vs Huracán Balazote Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output points to an Almansa win combined with over 1.5 goals, though the 45% home and 45% draw probabilities suggest this is far from a clear-cut call. The comparison metrics reinforce that tension: Almansa dominate form, attack and Poisson at 100.00 against 0.00, yet the head-to-head split of 36.00 to 64.00 and goals split of 44.00 to 56.00 favour Huracán Balazote, so the aggregate totals of 49.00 and 51.00 are nearly level. Almansa's three-match form of LWD includes a 3-0 home win over La Solana, a 0-0 draw at Villacañas and a 3-2 loss at Noblejas, giving them five goals scored and three conceded with two clean sheets. Huracán Balazote's LLL form is far bleaker, with three defeats, no goals scored and six conceded, including 0-1 and 0-2 home losses and a 3-0 away defeat. The goals analysis sharpens this contrast, as Almansa average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded while Huracán Balazote average 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, and Almansa's scoring is heavily weighted to the 76-90 window at 60%. The last-five records extend the pattern, with Almansa adding a 3-0 win at Conquense and a 1-1 draw with Quintanar del Rey, while Huracán Balazote's two older entries are also 0-1 and 0-3 defeats, meaning their scoreless run spans five matches. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, since Huracán Balazote won 4-2 and 3-2 in 2020-21 and drew 1-1 in 2022, with Almansa's only win in that sample a 3-2 away success in October 2021. That head-to-head evidence is four matches from 2020 to 2022 and therefore a small, dated sample, whereas the current-season form and goal data are recent but rest on only three fixtures each. The over 1.5 goals element looks reasonably supported by Almansa's two overs in three matches and Huracán Balazote's concession rate, but the 45% draw probability and the head-to-head lean toward the away side mean the Almansa win carries clear uncertainty.

Predicted winner

Almansa

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Almansa and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Almansa 1–1 Huracán Balazote (26 Feb 2022)
2. Huracán Balazote 2–3 Almansa (31 Oct 2021)
3. Huracán Balazote 4–2 Almansa (17 Feb 2021)
4. Almansa 2–3 Huracán Balazote (14 Nov 2020)