Almagro vs Nueva Chicago Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Almagro win or draw combined with under -3.5 goals, but its own probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. The comparison metrics reinforce that split: Almagro leads on form (56 versus 44), attack (71 versus 29) and Poisson (71 versus 29), while Nueva Chicago dominates the head-to-head comparison (71 versus 29) and the goals comparison (67 versus 33), leaving the overall totals almost level at 50.30 and 49.70. Almagro's season profile shows 9 wins, 8 draws and 13 losses from 30 matches, with a stronger home record (6-4-5) than away (3-4-8), which supports the double-chance framing more than an outright win. Nueva Chicago's 8 wins, 9 draws and 13 losses hide a stark home-away divide: 5-8-2 at home but only 3-1-11 away, and their away scoring average of 0.40 goals per game is the clearest statistical argument against them winning this fixture. The goals analysis points the same direction as the -3.5 advice, since Almagro have stayed under 3.5 goals in all 30 matches and Nueva Chicago in all 30, with both teams' over 2.5 counts at just one match each. Recent form is less supportive of Almagro, however: their last five produced one win, two draws and two losses with only four goals scored, while Nueva Chicago's last five yielded one win, one draw and three losses but also just two goals scored across five matches. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, as Nueva Chicago have won four of the last ten meetings and Almagro three, including a 2-1 Almagro win in the most recent 2026 fixture and a 2-1 Almagro win at this venue in 2024. That recent head-to-head edge for Almagro, combined with Nueva Chicago's severe away weakness, helps justify the double chance, while the near-total absence of high-scoring matches on both sides supports the under -3.5 component. The main tension is that the head-to-head and goals comparison metrics favour Nueva Chicago even though their away form and scoring output do not, so the model's advice appears to weight current-season home-away splits and low-scoring trends more heavily than historical meetings.

Predicted winner

Almagro

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Almagro or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Nueva Chicago 1–2 Almagro (12 May 2026)
2. Almagro 1–2 Nueva Chicago (22 Jun 2024)
3. Nueva Chicago 1–0 Almagro (03 Feb 2024)
4. Nueva Chicago 2–0 Almagro (14 Jul 2023)
5. Almagro 0–0 Nueva Chicago (12 Mar 2023)