Aljustrelense vs Alcochetense Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Alcochetense a 45% win probability and Aljustrelense only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the advice of a draw-or-Alcochetense double chance reflects a clear lean toward the away side while still treating a stalemate as equally likely. That lean is only partly echoed in the comparison metrics: form is dead level at 50.00 for both teams and defence is likewise tied at 50.00, yet attack splits sharply at 29.00 for Aljustrelense against 71.00 for Alcochetense, which is the main statistical driver behind the away preference. The Poisson figures complicate that picture, since they favour Aljustrelense 55.00 to 45.00, and the aggregate totals are nearly balanced at 46.00 versus 54.00, so the model's away lean rests more on attacking output than on a uniform statistical edge. Both teams' three-match league records are winless and almost identical in shape, with Aljustrelense on DLD and Alcochetense on LDD, each having drawn twice and lost once, which supports the unusually high 45% draw probability. The goals analysis reinforces the attacking split: Aljustrelense average just 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded, while Alcochetense average 1.70 scored and 2.00 conceded, meaning both defences have leaked at the same rate but only the visitors have shown consistent scoring. Alcochetense's scoring is spread across five different 20% time bands and they have failed to score in none of their matches, whereas Aljustrelense have been shut out once and conceded 4-0 away to Sintrense, underlining the fragility behind the home side's low win probability. The last-five records add a further qualification, because Aljustrelense's sequence includes a 3-0 win over Ferreiras alongside heavy defeats, while Alcochetense's includes an 8-0 win over Fayal and a 2-0 win over CF Benfica, suggesting the away side's form is more explosive but also built on a small and uneven sample. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical meeting data to either confirm or contradict the model's read, and the goals comparison fields for both teams are also zero, leaving the prediction dependent on recent form, attack, and Poisson inputs alone. On balance, the evidence supports treating Alcochetense as the stronger attacking proposition and the draw as a genuinely live outcome, but the Poisson counter-signal and the shared defensive weaknesses mean the double chance should be read as a cautious lean rather than a confident separation of the two sides.

Predicted winner

Alcochetense

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Alcochetense

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.