Alingsås W vs Trelleborg W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Alingsås W a 35% home win and 35% draw against Trelleborg W's 30%, framing a narrow double-chance lean toward Alingsås W or draw combined with a -3.5 goals line. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Alingsås W lead on form (62 vs 38), attack (60 vs 40) and defence (58 vs 42), yet Trelleborg W dominate the Poisson projection (58 vs 42) and the head-to-head weighting (100 vs 0). The head-to-head record explains that split, since Trelleborg W won the 2026 meeting 1-0 at home and also took the 2023 home fixture 3-1, with Alingsås W's only success a 3-1 away win in June 2023. Season form complicates the picture further: Trelleborg W have eight wins, five draws and six losses from 19, while Alingsås W have just four wins, seven draws and eight losses, so the hosts' edge in the comparison scores rests on recent weighting rather than overall results. Alingsås W's scoring profile is modest at 0.90 goals per game, and their 17 goals came with 26 conceded, whereas Trelleborg W average 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, giving them more attacking output but a similarly leaky defensive record. The goals analysis supports the under line, as Alingsås W stayed under 3.5 goals in all 19 matches and Trelleborg W in 17 of 19, with only two Trelleborg matches exceeding that threshold. Recent form is mixed for both: Alingsås W's last four show a draw, a win, a loss and a draw, all low-scoring, while Trelleborg W have a win, two draws and a loss, including a 4-0 defeat to Malmö FF W. The small samples in those last-five records and the sparse three-match head-to-head mean the 100% away head-to-head weighting should be treated as a strong signal but not a decisive one, especially as the probabilities remain nearly even. Overall, the evidence jointly supports a low-scoring, closely contested match where the double chance is plausible but the -3.5 goals component looks better grounded than any outright winner claim.

Predicted winner

Alingsås W

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Alingsås W or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Trelleborg W 1–0 Alingsås W (09 May 2026)
2. Trelleborg W 3–1 Alingsås W (13 Aug 2023)
3. Alingsås W 1–3 Trelleborg W (18 Jun 2023)