Alianza vs Inca Aruba Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output makes Alianza the winner, but the probability split is unusually flat: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%. That structure implies the advice is really a lean toward Alianza avoiding defeat rather than a strong outright win, since the draw carries equal weight to the home side and the win-or-draw flag is false.
• The comparison metrics broadly reinforce the Alianza lean but with one notable internal tension. Alianza leads on attack (65 vs 35), defence (38 vs 62), Poisson (83 vs 17), goals (75 vs 25) and total (61.6 vs 38.4), and holds a 100-0 head-to-head edge. However, form is the one category where Inca Aruba is marginally ahead (53 vs 47), which qualifies the otherwise one-sided profile and helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home win.
• The head-to-head record is the most extreme single input: the only meeting shown, on 26 July 2026, ended Inca Aruba 1-3 Alianza, giving Alianza a 100-0 split. That result is consistent with Alianza's superior attack and Poisson ratings, but it is a single match, so it should be treated as a directional signal rather than a reliable base rate.
• Alianza's team analysis shows a durable, low-loss profile: 3 wins, 4 draws and only 2 defeats in 9 games, with no home losses and 2 home clean sheets. Their goals analysis adds a defensive edge, conceding 1.00 per home game versus 1.80 away, and their 2.5-goal under count is 7 of 9, suggesting a controlled rather than explosive scoring pattern. This supports the home side's case while also fitting the elevated draw probability.
• Inca Aruba's profile is more volatile and leans negative: 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats in 11 games, including a four-match losing streak, and they concede 1.80 per game overall (2.20 away). Their goals analysis shows only 0.70 scored per game and just 1 of 11 matches going over 1.5 goals, which makes a low-scoring away performance plausible and weakens their 10% win probability further.
• The last-five records add nuance to the form comparison. Alianza's recent sample is short and unbeaten but draw-heavy (D, W, D, including a 0-0 with CD Motagua), while Inca Aruba's is mixed (W, L, W, W, D) and includes a 1-3 away defeat to Águila. Inca Aruba's slightly better form score therefore reflects recent results rather than a clear quality gap, and the small sample sizes mean neither trend should be over-weighted against the stronger comparison and head-to-head evidence for Alianza.

Predicted winner

Alianza

Betting advice

Winner : Alianza

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Inca Aruba 1–3 Alianza (26 Jul 2026)