El-Salvador · Primera Division
Alianza vs Firpo Prediction
Match prediction
- Firpo's 45% win and draw probability each, versus Alianza's 10%, justify the double-chance advice despite the model's nominal away winner.
- Firpo's defensive score of 73 dwarfs Alianza's 27, supporting the draw-or-Firpo advice through a clear edge in preventing goals.
- Alianza's superior Poisson score of 72 conflicts with its 10% win probability, suggesting the model weights recent defensive form more heavily.
- Firpo's away record of zero wins in three matches tempers the away-win component, making the draw half of the double chance the safer anchor.
- Alianza's home form shows three wins and three draws without defeat, strengthening the draw probability and reinforcing the double-chance selection.
- Head-to-head favors Firpo at 71 versus 29, though recent meetings include draws and an Alianza win, so the edge is directional rather than decisive.
- Predicted winner
- Firpo
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Firpo
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Alianza | Firpo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Attack | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Defence | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| Poisson | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| H2h | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Goals | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Total | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Alianza
Recent form: WLDLDWDWDDW.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Firpo
Recent form: DWWDWLWLWDW.
Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Firpo —–— Alianza (17 Sep 2026)
- Firpo 2–1 Alianza (22 Mar 2026)
- Alianza 2–3 Firpo (25 Jan 2026)
- Firpo 0–0 Alianza (21 Dec 2025)
- Firpo 0–5 Alianza (28 Sep 2025)