Alianza Universidad vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Alianza Universidad a 45% home win probability and the draw the same 45%, leaving Bentín Tacna Heroica at just 10%, which frames the double-chance advice as a cautious lean toward the host rather than a confident outright pick. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Bentín actually leads on form (57 to 43), attack (58 to 42), defence (58 to 42) and Poisson (62 to 38), so the away side's underlying profile is stronger even though the probabilities do not reflect it. The two areas where Alianza dominates are the ones most specific to this matchup: head-to-head at 80 to 20 and goals at 100 to 0, while the aggregate total is nearly level at 49 to 51, suggesting the model is weighting recent direct encounters and scoring patterns more heavily than general form. The head-to-head record supports that tilt, with Alianza winning the most recent meeting 1-0 at this same Estadio Heraclio Tapia and the earlier 2026 fixture ending 0-0, so Bentín have yet to score against this opponent across two matches. Alianza's own numbers are modest rather than commanding: 5 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses from 16, with 18 goals scored and 18 conceded, and their last five produced three draws, a 3-0 loss at Estudiantil CNI and a 1-0 home win over Bentín. Bentín's season record is clearly better at 8 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, and their 22 goals scored against 13 conceded is reflected in a 0.80 goals-against average, yet their last five is mixed with two wins, two draws and the 1-0 defeat at Alianza. The goals analysis adds nuance: Alianza score 1.10 per game overall and concede 1.10, while Bentín score 1.40 and concede 0.80, but Bentín's away scoring drops to 1.00 per game and their away defence also sits at 1.00, narrowing the gap when they travel. Both teams show a strong under 2.5 tendency, with Alianza going under in 14 of 16 matches and Bentín in 13 of 16, which points toward a low-scoring contest rather than an open one. Alianza's late-game vulnerability is notable, as they concede 10 of 18 goals after the 60th minute, while Bentín's defensive concentration of concessions comes in the 31-45 window, so the timing patterns could matter if the game stays tight. Overall, the evidence is genuinely split: Bentín's superior form, attack and defensive metrics argue against a home-favouring prediction, but the head-to-head dominance, the 100-to-0 goals comparison and the draw-heavy profile of both sides make the double-chance advice on Alianza or the draw a defensible, if not strongly supported, position.

Predicted winner

Alianza Universidad

Betting advice

Double chance : Alianza Universidad or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Alianza Universidad 1–0 Bentín Tacna Heroica (24 Aug 2026)
2. Bentín Tacna Heroica 0–0 Alianza Universidad (09 May 2026)