Alianza Lima W vs FBC Melgar W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output favours Alianza Lima W, pairing that winner with a +1.5 goals combo, yet the headline probabilities of 45% home, 45% draw and 10% away make this a far less certain call than the selection implies. The comparison metrics are internally split: form is dead level at 50.00 each and head-to-head is also 50.00/50.00, while Alianza Lima W's defensive score of 60.00 against Melgar's 40.00 and a Poisson split of 85.00 to 15.00 point the same way as the advice. That Poisson gap is the strongest single signal supporting the pick, but it sits awkwardly beside the attack metric, where Melgar W actually edges ahead 52.00 to 48.00, and the goals comparison is empty at 0.00 for both sides, so it cannot arbitrate. The season records reinforce the home side's edge without removing the draw risk: Alianza Lima W have 17 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 22 games with 15 clean sheets, while Melgar W have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses from 20 with only 7 clean sheets. Alianza Lima W's goals analysis is emphatic at home, averaging 4.20 scored and just 0.50 conceded there, whereas Melgar W average 2.00 scored but 2.20 conceded on the road, a vulnerability that could underpin the +1.5 goals element. Both teams arrive on five-match winning runs, so recent form offers no separation, and the only head-to-head meeting in the data was a 0-0 draw in June 2026, a small sample that cautions against treating the fixture as automatically high-scoring. The goal-distribution detail is largely unavailable, with minute bands and most totals blank, so the over 1.5 case rests mainly on Alianza Lima W's 14 overs from 22 matches and Melgar W's 11 from 20 rather than on any timing pattern. Overall, the evidence leans toward an Alianza Lima W win with goals, but the level form, level head-to-head and unusually high 45% draw probability mean the advice should be read as a modest lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Alianza Lima W

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Alianza Lima W and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. FBC Melgar W 0–0 Alianza Lima W (12 Jun 2026)