Alessandria vs Asti Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Alessandria with a double-chance advice of “Alessandria or draw,” expressed as 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the value is concentrated in avoiding an Asti win rather than in a clear home victory. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Asti hold the better form (54 versus 46), attack (55 versus 45) and defence (55 versus 45), yet the Poisson component swings strongly toward Alessandria at 72 versus 28, suggesting the model sees a structural home edge that recent results alone do not capture. The head-to-head, goals and total comparison fields are all populated with zeros, which effectively means those sections offer no usable signal and should not be read as genuine balance. Alessandria’s three-match form of WWL includes a 2-1 home win over Sestri Levante and a 2-1 away win at Valenzana, but also a heavy 4-1 loss at Millesimo, and their goals analysis shows 1.70 scored and 2.00 conceded per game with no clean sheets and no failures to score. Asti’s four-match form of LWWD is steadier, with a 2-0 home win over Gozzano, a 2-1 away win at Imperia, a 2-2 home draw with Valenzana and a 2-0 away loss at Sestri Levante, producing 1.50 scored and 1.30 conceded per game plus one clean sheet. The last-five records add a qualification: Alessandria’s list reaches back to 2024 fixtures against Vicenza Virtus and Legnago Salus, so only the three 2026 matches are relevant to current form, while Asti’s five entries are all from 2026 and therefore a more coherent recent sample. Alessandria’s defensive numbers are skewed by the 4-1 defeat, since they conceded only one goal in each of their other two 2026 matches, whereas Asti have conceded two or fewer in every 2026 outing and kept Gozzano scoreless. The goals-by-minute data show Alessandria scoring all five of their goals in the first 45 minutes (40% in the 0-15 band and 60% in the 31-45 band), while Asti spread their six goals across the 16-30, 31-45, 46-60 and 61-75 windows, hinting at different attacking rhythms rather than a clear overall superiority. With no head-to-head history available and the goals and total comparison columns empty, the 45% draw probability looks like the model’s way of pricing the genuine uncertainty between Asti’s better recent profile and Alessandria’s strong Poisson and home-venue advantage.

Predicted winner

Alessandria

Betting advice

Double chance : Alessandria or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.