Alcoyano vs Deportiva Minera Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Deportiva Minera a 45% chance of winning and Alcoyano only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the advice of a draw-or-Minera double chance combined with under 3.5 goals rests mainly on Minera's stronger overall profile rather than on any expected dominance. That profile is visible in the comparison metrics, where Minera lead on form (56.00 vs 44.00) and especially on defence (67.00 vs 33.00), while attack is level at 50.00 and the Poisson, head-to-head and goals columns are all zeroed out and therefore carry no separating information. The team analysis reinforces this: Minera are unbeaten across three league games with a WDD sequence, two clean sheets and only two goals conceded, whereas Alcoyano's DLW record includes a 3-0 away defeat and four goals against, which explains why the defensive gap is the clearest differentiator. Alcoyano's home form is nonetheless a qualifier, since their only win was a 2-0 home success over Poblense and they drew 1-1 with Cieza at El Collao, so the venue does not make them obviously vulnerable. Minera's own away output is thin, with no away goals scored and a 0-0 draw at Mallorca II, which tempers the case for an away win and helps justify why the draw carries the same 45% as a Minera victory. The goals analysis supports the under 3.5 element: Alcoyano have scored three and conceded four in three games, Minera have scored three and conceded two, and neither side has gone over 2.5 goals in any match, with all three of their fixtures finishing under that line. Minera's defensive record is built on two clean sheets, while Alcoyano have kept one, and Alcoyano's away failure to score in the 3-0 loss at Castellón II suggests their attacking floor is low enough to keep the game tight. The last-five records extend the sample beyond the league: Alcoyano have won three of five including 2-0 over Poblense and 2-1 at La Nucía, while Minera are unbeaten in five with three wins and two draws, so both arrive in reasonable shape and the recent form edge is narrower than the season table alone implies. No head-to-head record is available, so the prediction cannot be cross-checked against prior meetings between these teams, and the zeroed Poisson and goals comparison values mean the probabilities appear to lean on form, defence and the small three-game samples rather than on a deeper matchup model.

Predicted winner

Deportiva Minera

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Deportiva Minera and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.