Albinoleffe vs Alcione Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward an Albinoleffe win or draw, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for an Alcione victory, and the double-chance advice reflects that combined 90% home-or-draw probability. That stance is only partly echoed by the comparison metrics, where Albinoleffe's superior attack (54 vs 46), defence (56 vs 44), head-to-head (75 vs 25) and goals (75 vs 25) scores sit alongside a weaker form rating (45 vs 55) and a sharply contradictory Poisson score (26 vs 74) that favours Alcione. The head-to-head record offers the clearest support for the advice, since Albinoleffe won the two most recent meetings 2-0 at home and 2-1 away, and also took the April 2025 fixture 1-0, with Alcione's only success coming in December 2024. Albinoleffe's last five are volatile rather than dominant, featuring a 5-3 away win at Juventus U23 but also home defeats to Arzignano Valchiampo and Athletic Carpi plus goalless and 1-1 draws, which helps explain why the model hedges with a draw rather than backing a straight home win. Alcione's recent form is similarly mixed, with a 0-4 home loss to Union Brescia offset by a 3-2 away win at Folgore Caratese and three draws, including a 0-0 at Dolomiti Bellunesi. The goals analysis adds nuance: both teams have scored nine goals across six games at 1.50 per match, but Albinoleffe's total is heavily away-weighted (seven away versus two at home), while Alcione's defence is notably leakier overall at 1.70 conceded per game against Albinoleffe's 1.30. Albinoleffe's home record is a genuine concern, with no wins, one draw and two losses at home, whereas Alcione have lost none of their three away games, drawing two and winning one, which qualifies the home-favouring advice. Both sides have kept one clean sheet and failed to score twice, and both have converted their only penalty, so there is little to separate them on those secondary measures. Overall, the head-to-head and defensive metrics support the double chance, but the Poisson split, Albinoleffe's winless home record and Alcione's unbeaten away form mean the 90% home-or-draw probability should be treated as a model estimate rather than a firm conclusion.

Predicted winner

Albinoleffe

Betting advice

Double chance : Albinoleffe or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Alcione 2–1 Albinoleffe (25 Apr 2026)
2. Albinoleffe 2–0 Alcione (20 Dec 2025)
3. Albinoleffe 1–0 Alcione (18 Apr 2025)
4. Alcione 0–2 Albinoleffe (08 Dec 2024)