AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Prediction

Match prediction

• Stevenage's 45% win and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, though the model gives Wimbledon only a 10% chance despite home advantage.
• Wimbledon's four home clean sheets and zero home goals conceded explain the low home probability, but their 0.50 home scoring average also caps their win potential.
• Stevenage's 64% attack rating and 1.60 goals-per-game average support their edge, yet their 1.10 goals-against average and Wimbledon's defensive record qualify the outright win.
• The -3.5 goals advice aligns with both teams' under-3.5 records, as Wimbledon stayed under 3.5 in all eight matches and Stevenage in six of seven.
• Stevenage's 85% head-to-head rating reflects recent dominance, including a 5-1 away win, but two of the last three league meetings were decided by single goals or drawn.
• Both teams' identical 50% form rating and Stevenage's tendency to concede late goals suggest the draw component of the double chance carries real weight.

Predicted winner

Stevenage

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Stevenage and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Stevenage 1–0 AFC Wimbledon (14 Mar 2026)
2. AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Stevenage (26 Dec 2025)
3. AFC Wimbledon 1–5 Stevenage (02 Sep 2025)
4. AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Stevenage (05 Sep 2023)
5. Stevenage 2–1 AFC Wimbledon (15 Apr 2023)