AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol Prediction
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : draw or Apollon Limassol and -3.5 goals
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw and 45% Apollon split makes the double chance the logical expression of its uncertainty rather than a firm away pick.
- Apollon's perfect defensive record and three clean sheets in three matches justify the 100% defence rating, though that sample is small.
- AEK Larnaca's zero defence rating and one clean sheet in six games support the model's low 10% home win probability.
- Head-to-head favours AEK 62% to 38%, a genuine conflict with the model's lean, which the draw component of the advice absorbs.
- Both attacks rate identically at 50%, so the edge rests on defence and form rather than any attacking superiority.
- Every AEK match this season stayed under 3.5 goals, reinforcing the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
- Predicted winner
- Apollon Limassol
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Apollon Limassol and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | AEK Larnaca | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| H2h | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Goals | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Total | 51.3% | 48.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
AEK Larnaca
Recent form: WLLDLW.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Apollon Limassol
Recent form: WWD.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Apollon Limassol 0–0 AEK Larnaca (16 Jul 2026)
- AEK Larnaca 1–0 Apollon Limassol (06 May 2026)
- Apollon Limassol 1–1 AEK Larnaca (05 Apr 2026)
- AEK Larnaca 0–1 Apollon Limassol (14 Feb 2026)
- Apollon Limassol 1–2 AEK Larnaca (02 Nov 2025)