AD Cofutpa vs Santa Cruz FC Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output favours Santa Cruz FC but only through a double chance of draw or away, with away win and draw both at 45.0% against a 10.0% home probability; that near-even split between the top two outcomes suggests the advice is a low-conviction lean rather than a clear away superiority.
• The comparison metrics broadly reinforce that lean: Santa Cruz lead form 75.00 to 25.00, attack 78.00 to 22.00, head-to-head 75.00 to 25.00, goals 63.00 to 37.00 and total 61.50 to 38.50, while AD Cofutpa's only comparative edge is defence at 56.00 to 44.00. The notable conflict is Poisson, which favours AD Cofutpa 66.00 to 34.00, so the underlying chance-creation model is the main counterweight to the otherwise Santa Cruz-favouring evidence.
• AD Cofutpa's team analysis shows a winless record of 0 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses in 7 matches, with a current form string of LLLLDLL and a four-match losing streak; they have scored only 4 goals (0.60 per game) while conceding 13 (1.90 per game), and their last five produced one 0-0 draw plus four defeats, including a 3-0 loss at Quepos Cambute. That profile supports the low 10.0% home win probability, though their single clean sheet and the 0-0 draw hint they can occasionally keep a match tight.
• Santa Cruz FC's record is also poor overall at 2 wins and 5 losses from 7, with form LWLLLWL, but their two wins both came at home and included a 4-0 victory over AD Sarchí; their goals analysis is heavily home-weighted, with 9 of 10 goals scored at home (1.80 per game) versus 1 away (0.50 per game), while they have conceded 4.00 per game away. This home-away split is a material qualification on the away-favouring advice, since the fixture places them away from the venue where their attacking output has been concentrated.
• The head-to-head record gives Santa Cruz FC three wins, no AD Cofutpa wins and two draws across five meetings, including a 3-1 Santa Cruz home win in August 2026 and a 4-1 Santa Cruz home win in January 2026; however, the two most recent meetings in the sequence include a 3-3 draw and a 1-1 draw, and the 2025 meetings were also drawn. The head-to-head therefore supports Santa Cruz as the stronger side historically but also shows AD Cofutpa have repeatedly avoided defeat in this matchup, which is consistent with the model hedging toward the draw.
• Goal-timing data adds nuance to the expected match shape: AD Cofutpa have conceded 30.77% of their goals in the 76-90 window and 23.08% in each of the 0-15 and 16-30 windows, while Santa Cruz have conceded 38.46% in the 76-90 window and 30.77% in the 16-30 window. Both teams' defensive vulnerabilities cluster late and early, and both have seen over 0.5 goals in 6 of 7 matches but over 2.5 goals in only 2 of 7, suggesting the game may be more likely to produce goals than a clean sheet, yet not necessarily a high-scoring outcome.

Predicted winner

Santa Cruz FC

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Santa Cruz FC

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Santa Cruz FC 3–1 AD Cofutpa (09 Aug 2026)
2. AD Cofutpa 3–3 Santa Cruz FC (11 Mar 2026)
3. Santa Cruz FC 4–1 AD Cofutpa (25 Jan 2026)
4. Santa Cruz FC 1–1 AD Cofutpa (06 Nov 2025)
5. AD Cofutpa 1–1 Santa Cruz FC (31 Aug 2025)