22 de Julio vs El Nacional Prediction

Match prediction

• El Nacional's 45% win and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since 22 de Julio's 10% win share is the clear outlier.
• The head-to-head record strongly favors El Nacional, who won three of four meetings, including a 3-0 away victory in the most recent clash.
• El Nacional's superior form and defensive metrics outweigh 22 de Julio's home advantage, though both attacks rate equally at 50%.
• Both sides struggle to score, with 22 de Julio failing to score in 17 matches and El Nacional in 13, supporting a low-scoring draw risk.
• El Nacional's away form is poor with only one away win, which tempers confidence and explains why the draw carries equal probability.
• The Poisson model gives El Nacional 61% versus 39%, reinforcing the advice while acknowledging 22 de Julio's occasional home threat.

Predicted winner

El Nacional

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or El Nacional

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. El Nacional 3–0 22 de Julio (12 Sep 2026)
2. 22 de Julio 1–3 El Nacional (31 Jul 2026)
3. El Nacional 1–1 22 de Julio (09 May 2026)
4. 22 de Julio 0–3 El Nacional (11 Jul 2025)